Consequences of large customer opt-out: An Ohio example

Opt-out policies allow large customers to withdraw from participation in utility sector efficiency programs. Our analysis shows these policies impose high costs, including increased utility system investments due to higher demand, increased air pollution within the state and surrounding regions, higher health costs because of the increased air pollution, and lost bill savings opportunities for large customers, leading to lost economic growth. We examine the consequences using Ohio as an example.     

我国页岩气产业发展分析

页岩气作为天然气的替代品为缓解能源紧张起到了积极的推动作用,越来越引起了世界各国的重视。本文从全球视角统筹考虑,通过对美国、欧洲页岩气的发展进程、技术水平、政策措施等方面的分析,结合国内页岩气储量、分布、成藏等资源状况,对我国页岩气产业发展当前存在的主要问题进行了详细分析,提出了做好页岩气地质调查基础工作、加快页岩气技术创新、完善页岩气产业政策、设定合理价格、注重开发与环保协调、借鉴国外先进经验迅速发展我国页岩气产业的一系列政策建议。     

开采总量控制政策的历史沿革、作用及前景分析

本文详细介绍了开采总量控制政策的内涵、发展历史和目的,并选取钨和稀土进行实证研究分析了该政策实施以来所起的作用。指出因优势矿产出口政策前景不乐观,未来开采总量控制政策的重要性将更加凸显;而十八届三中全会上"使市场在资源配置中起决定性作用"的提出似乎又削弱了开采总量控制政策的主体地位。未来国家有可能会缩小该政策的实施范围,但是需要对不同的矿种进行差别化考虑,同时实施必要的行政手段进行宏观调控来弥补市场失灵的缺陷。     

Telling tales: using stories to remake energy policy

To benefit and protect the populace, government policies often promise aspirational changes to current practice. Different kinds of narratives are important in the framing, explanation, motivation, and understanding of policies and strategies. For example, the UK government's 2008 Climate Change Act proclaimed that all new homes will be zero carbon by 2016. This ‘hero story’, where society is ‘saved’ by clever technologies, is inspiring, positive and familiar. An alternative is the ‘learning story’, where things are not quite as simple as they first seemed. In a learning story, protagonists are normal people who need to overcome a challenge. In energy policy, the learning story could address the gap between the technical potential and what is achieved in practice. Three real-world examples from retrofit and new-build projects are used to show how implicit narratives can create conflict when the tellers (e.g. researchers) have to tell one kind of story but have data for the other. Recommendations are provided for a balanced approach to the deployment of different kinds of tales by policy-makers, researchers, implementers and users. Harnessing the learning story and developing a ‘caring story’ could motivate policy-makers and the public to invest effort in building performance.     

Stakeholder Representations of Gentrification in Amsterdam and Berlin: A Marginal Process?

In recent years, several studies have highlighted how gentrification strategies are imposed under the discursive umbrella of ‘social mixing’. However, most evidence is based on Anglo-Saxon experiences. This paper sets out to expand the geography of gentrification by looking at the representation of processes and policies of gentrification as put forward by key stakeholders in Nord-Neukölln (Berlin) and Indische Buurt (Amsterdam). It shows that in both contexts, stakeholders and policy documents engage with the concept of gentrification, rather than avoid it. Due to public-policy influence and local criticisms, this engagement differs between both cases. In Nord-Neukölln, the term is heavily contested and policy-makers attempt to refute accusations of gentrification, while in the Indische Buurt, the process is explicitly pursued as a positive policy instrument by policy-makers. Different representations within each case are shown to be influenced by the characteristics of in-moving and out-moving residents; the employed timeframe and the perceived influence of institutions on urban regeneration.     

上海大都市地区空间结构优化的政策路径探析——基于人口分布情景的分析方法

通过分析人口分布和城市空间结构以及城市空间政策之间的关系,从人口分布视角探讨大都市地区空间结构优化的路径.人口持续向中心城和边缘地区集聚,新城发展缓慢,是上海上一轮总体规划实施以来表现出的突出矛盾.面对人口进一步增长趋势,如何有效促进新城发展、缓解中心城增长压力,是"上海2040"空间战略研究迫切需要关注的重要课题.围绕人口分布优化的空间政策研究是上海空间结构调整的关键,通过模拟"上海2040"边缘承载、廊道承载和新城承载三种人口分布情景,分析产业结构和布局调整、轨道交通建设、住房供给和公共服务设施配置等空间政策的适应性,并从构建人口分布的目标导向、时间维度的行动框架、差异化的分区引导、空间政策聚焦与协同、阶段评估与动态应对五个方面,探讨上海城市空间结构优化的思路.     

中国建筑低碳发展战略路径及对策研究

随着中国城镇化的快速发展及人们对建筑品质和舒适度的提高,中国建筑碳排放占全社会总排放量比例不断攀升,建筑低碳发展势在必行。总结欧盟、德国、美国推进建筑低碳发展的经验,结合中国建筑低碳发展现状,制定适合中国建筑低碳发展的路线图。并从合理控制城镇总体建设规模、加快能耗总量及碳排放量峰值出现、分类别分区域实现既定减排目标、推进建筑工业化智能化发展、推动技术革新和绿色服务产业发展、加强低碳生活方式引导等方面提出政策建议。     

基于半马尔可夫控制过程的智能电网最优储能控制

针对具有多种类型业务需求的智能电网储能控制问题,在考虑业务需求和用户行为的随机分布特性,以及储能设备的充放电特性的基础上,建立了基于半马尔可夫控制过程的系统分析模型和策略优化框架。在此基础上,以电网运行的长期平均代价最小为目标,结合性能势基于样本轨道的估计,提出一种基于仿真的策略迭代优化算法。该算法有效缓解了系统大状态空间导致的维数灾问题,具有较快的收敛速度和良好的应用效果。仿真结果验证了该方法的有效性。     

碳纤维市场分析和产业发展建议

把碳纤维市场划分为高性能前提下的低成本碳纤维(航空航天用)和低成本前提下的高性能碳纤维(工业用)两大类,并分别对这两大类市场所需的碳纤维品种、需求量、要求等进行了分析。指出航空航天用碳纤维主要是中小丝束碳纤维,军机所用碳纤维要求高,但用量不大,属于战略物资,建议国家必须扶持;民机所用碳纤维要求更高,但形成批量供应所需时间很长,为保证国内大飞机产业的生存,建议国家必须在此期间建立和培养有条件的国内碳纤维企业作为其稳定的供应商,并在形成批量供应前予以政策性补助。工业用碳纤维主要是中大丝束碳纤维,它主要是市场行为,可分为传统市场和待开发市场两部分,传统市场主要靠价格和质量与国外和我国台湾厂商竞争,而后者主要取决于是否能开发出制造成本(起码是全寿命成本,即采购成本、使用成本和维护成本之和)优于传统材料的产品,若在每个领域都能开发出有示范意义的产品,市场将极为广大,因此建议国家应该从政策上对开发这类产品予以扶持。同时指出,汽车是今后可以预计到的巨大市场,但鉴于其对成本、生产效率和回收利用的严酷要求,国内的研究基础又极其薄弱,取得突破尚需时日。     

2015年中国经济形势及政策走向判断

指出了我国仍具备保持稳定增长的基本条件,但经济运行仍面临较多困难和挑战。2015年我国经济将呈现稳中缓降态势。针对经济运行中存在的困难和挑战,应坚持稳中求进、适应新常态,推动新发展。